Now, I don’t have facts to back this up…
…but is it possible that JEB is getting squeezed out of the Republican primary? A couple of weeks ago I suggested that he was on the 2012 “Mitt” Romney path to the nomination, where nobody really like him, but they try everybody else one by one and realize that they like each of them even less. But back in the 2012 cycle, it seems to me, each of those temporary front-runners was covered in relation to “Mitt,” like “oh, look, Herman Cain just moved past ‘Mitt,'” or “wow, Rick Santorum just jumped ahead of ‘Mitt’ in the polls.” “Mitt” was the constant, the center of gravity even when he wasn’t leading in the polls. I don’t get that feeling from JEB anymore. Donald Trump’s inexplicable (well, OK, it’s a little explicable) strength in national GOP polls is being treated as its own story, not as a reflection on JEB, and in Iowa, where Trump isn’t leading in the polls, it’s Scott Walker who is in the top spot. JEB has a razor thin (0.4%) lead in New Hampshire, but the most recent NH poll, from NBC, shows Trump burying him by 7 points.
Again, this is all based on my own perception, both of this year’s race and 2012, and yes all the caveats about early polling should be applied here, but there always seemed to be an inevitability about “Mitt’s” nomination back in 2012, a feeling that, yeah, this guy or that guy might be leading in the polls at the moment, but “Mitt” was clearly going to be the last man standing. Can you say the same thing about JEB at this point? A month or two ago I think you could have made that argument, but right now he seems to be getting lost in the noise. Trump is just sucking all the oxygen out of the room, and the “anybody but Trump” candidate looks increasingly like it could be Walker, not JEB. Obviously the whole field could/will shake up if/when Trump finally flames out, but man, doesn’t that seem like it should have already happened by now?
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