Conflict update: March 18-19 2017

BOILING IT DOWN

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If you’re one of those folks who are convinced that climate change is a Chinese hoax or whatever, I’ve got great news: it snowed in the US last week. Problem solved, am I right? Anyway, for the rest of us, things are not so hot. Or, rather, they’re extremely hot, and that’s the problem:

February 2017 was the planet’s second warmest February since record keeping began in 1880, said NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) on Friday; NASA also rated February 2017 as the second warmest February on record. The only warmer February was just last year, in 2016. Remarkably, February 2017 ranked as the fourth warmest month (expressed as the departure of temperature from average) of any month in the global historical record in the NASA database, and was the seventh warmest month in NOAA’s database—despite coming just one month after the end of a 5-month long La Niña event, which acted to cool the globe slightly. The extreme warmth of January 2017 (tenth warmest month of any month in NASA’s database) and February 2017 (fourth warmest) gives 2017 a shot at becoming Earth’s fourth consecutive warmest year on record, if a moderate or stronger El Niño event were to develop by summer, as some models are predicting.

Arctic sea ice extent during February 2017 was the lowest in the 39-year satellite record, beating the record set in February 2016, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The record low ice extent was due, in large part, to very warm air temperatures in the Arctic—temperatures at the 925 mb level (approximately 2,500 feet above sea level) were 2 – 5 degrees Celsius (4 – 9 degrees Fahrenheit) above average over the Arctic Ocean during February.

Sea ice has been exceptionally scant on the other end of the globe. Antarctic sea ice extent dropped below the lowest values recorded in any month in the satellite record by mid-February. They continued to sag until reaching a new record-low extent in early March.

NOAA also said a few days ago that this December-January-February period was the second hottest on record. But really, how about that snowstorm?

FRANCE

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Conflict update: February 8 2017

#ThanksTrump

Of the many unconscionable things Donald Trump has done in the not-even-three-weeks since he became president, this would be among the most unconscionable:

The leaked draft of a presidential memorandum Donald Trump is expected to sign within days suspends a 2010 rule that discouraged American companies from funding conflict and human rights abuses in the Democratic Republic of Congo through their purchase of  “conflict minerals.”

The memo, distributed inside the administration on Friday afternoon and obtained by The Intercept, directs the Securities and Exchange Commission to temporarily waive the requirements of the Conflict Mineral Rule, a provision of the Dodd Frank Act, for two years — which the rule explicitly allows the president to do for national security purposes. The memorandum also directs the State Department and Treasury Department to find an alternative plan to “address such problems in the DRC and adjoining countries.”

Trump apparently came to the conclusion that it would be better if American companies were allowed buy scarce minerals from Congolese warlords on the cheap after meeting with Intel CEO Brian Krzanich. This may shock you, but Krzanich’s company stands to gain mightily from this change in American policy. Child soldiers? Human rights violations? Constant war in the Congo? That’s Intel InsideTM, baby!

Also? Donald Trump is going to start getting rent payments from the Pentagon, which wants to establish a permanent security presence in Trump Tower and is prepared to pay for it. Welcome to the kleptocracy.

Somalia

Somalia has a new president: Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, AKA Farmajo.

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Hello, President Mohamed! (Wikimedia | Deeqosonna Warsame)

Farmajo (his nickname, apparently, because he likes cheese) is a former prime minister (and former employee of the New York State Department of Transportation) and dual US-Somali citizen (I guess he should check with the Trump administration about that) who defeated incumbent (now ex-)President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud in the second round of parliamentary voting. Mohamud was accused of trying to buy votes, and Farmajo became the anti-corruption candidate. Ironically, then, the candidate seen as the most popular and least corrupt won an election that wasn’t decided by popular vote and was seen as highly susceptible to corruption. The new president now faces the task of cleaning up one of the most corrupt countries on the planet, fending off al-Shabab, and maybe, just maybe trying to bring all of Somalia’s self-declared independent/autonomous regions back together. That seems like a pretty tall order, but Farmajo is probably the only candidate who had any shot at accomplishing it, and he won.

Surprisingly the day seems to have passed in (relative) peace. Attackers, possible al-Shabab but it’s not clear, attempted to storm a hotel in the city of Bosasso, in the Puntland region of the country, but they were driven off after killing four guards (two attackers were also killed), and there doesn’t seem to be an obvious connection to the presidential election.

Syria

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